There Conspiracy Behind the Century?

Despite the hustle and bustle of the case of Century Bank began to subside in the mass media, this case review process is still ongoing. Legal efforts directed to unload and find who is to blame, especially in rescue actions behind Century Bank. Finding who is at fault, certainly not free from the assumption of state losses resulting from the policy. However, the problem does not stop there, because over time, the outstanding issue of conspiracy theories linking Century Bank bailout funds with election fundraising effort by one political party, a bribe to police officials, to spread to the issue of lizard vs crocodile. Economic issues was shifted into a political issue.

In the movie Conspiracy Theory, Jerry Fletcher character played by Mel Gibson, said that a good conspiracy is a conspiracy that could never be proved. JFK assassination or Watergate, are examples of conspiracies that are difficult to prove. Until today, that appear are the various theories and speculations about what happened. Dozens of books published to analyze the historical and controversial events. But what actually happens, we'll never know. Is there really a conspiracy? We also never know.

In the field of political economy, the stories of speculation about a conspiracy too often emerged. The collapse of Lehman Brothers, the disclosure of the case Madoff, leaving many mysteries about the story of Jewish economic polarization. Domestically, the Bank Bali case until the case of Century Bank, for example, are various examples that relate how politics, power and money, are brethren.

A brother of another faith who often participate in kelindan was a "crime". Mario Puzzo in the novel Godfather writes, "Behind Every great fortune, there is 'a crime'. In other words, Puzzo want to say, "Behind the bertriliun amount of money, no crime."

Bailouts amounting to Rp 6.7 trillion rupiah, the strength of parties and individuals who reach billions of rupiah, and a very large flow of funds, would become an issue of "sexy" that invites questions. From where and to where those funds flow? And whether the funds associated with the conspiracy?

The question was certainly not easy to find answer. Then we too often led to claims to facts in making speculative interpretation of symptoms. Finally, no less than we are trapped into a disheveled and keterjebakan epistemic problems. A game of logic, which means, we assume something as the real thing. And that's just the fact that our assumptions. We regard a thing that happens, when it was only supposition we would an event.

The issue of a conspiracy behind the rescue of Century Bank, if any, would be interesting to reveal. However, with various limitations and analysis of empirical data, at least there are some things that need to be recorded prior to the query.

First, the views of experts and analysts in addressing the case of Century Bank is often inadequate. Often we see that most actual problems, both political and economic, attempted solved by common sense and logic, but weak empirical base. What do we know until now of more cases of Century Bank of the learning by Hearsay, or waffle a la coffee shops in various His throne: some say the high level of information leaks, gossip side of the road, or analysis of a more speculative nature than empirical. If we look at the responses on a blog or other media, it's more real. Responding to this case, each person bring their own analysis, which looks sophisticated, but of course, speculative because the support is insufficient empirical data.

Second, within the limits of empirical data, one fact that we can see is actually the macroeconomic conditions at Century Bank saved. At that time, it is difficult policy choices. Banks closed or saved, has its own risks. Preferred policy authority when it is saved Century Bank. And it is public policy made by the calculation to rescue the financial system more broadly.

Authorities often say that the rescue was done by a policy of good faith or good faith for the sake of macroeconomic area. Without thinking rescue to save the one hand, let alone help the owners. We see that the owner of Century Bank itself precisely captured. But we also understand, good intentions do not suffice. Good intentions are stored only in the liver, it is difficult to prove. Is visible is the impact of those policies. The impact of the policy for most people is more important to look at.

We see the current condition of the financial system is relatively stable and strong. Maintained the trust was able to avoid melting deeper than our financial system, and could prevent us from further crisis. Macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia one year after the policy was decided also much more solid and better. Meanwhile, fears of missing funds could also be minimized because of Century Bank is still operating, with a new name is Pearl Bank. That is, the possibility of bailouts to return there as well. When Pearl Bank operation improve, then the income will be used to replace the bailout.

Then what about a conspiracy? Where are the funds flow? And Who is to blame in this case? This analysis can only be stopped at the edge when the policy of Century Bank carried out the rescue.

But on the other side of the edge that, if then there is a conspiracy behind the bailout rescue, or whether there are political interests from the use of bailout funds, wholly located in a dark mystery that is far from my empirical coverage. It became a puzzle behind the dark night sky (the Riddle of a dark night sky).

My hope is that hopefully this case can be resolved properly and not just the expense of a certain party is politically weak, for the sake of mere spectator satisfaction "soap operas", as often happens in each case. (Junanto Herdiawan)